Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Well, That Was Fast
I guess I don't have enough hours in the day, but it seems to be a strain on life to blog once a day. Maybe I'll keep up this blog by posting after returning from my travels, but I doubt it. Thanks for reading, though, and I'll still be here, bored at work...
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
The Problem with Stock Charting (Why I Didn't Become a Psychiatrist)
Well, let's start with the part about psychiatry. Dedicating your career to helping others seems like a noble task, and that always appealed to me. What did not appeal to me were all the crazy antics therapists would take to "cure" their patients. Things like making patients run around naked to cure one's social anxieties, or having a patient sit below a pile of pillows while naked to simulate their mother's womb, only to have the patient slither out of the pillows to mimic birth (and yes, a lot of these crazy therapies revolve around nudity; no, I have no idea why). Too bad patients have suffocated to death under the pillows.
Why do such crazy therapies exist? Because almost everyone suffering from something will get better with time? Just got divorced? Give it a year. Suffering from a psychotic episode? You probably won't be in a month. Roughly 50% of the effects of any therapy can be attributed to this variable, time. As a result, even the worst therapists will see an improvement in their patients.
Now you're probably asking what in the world this has to do with people who chart stocks. I'm glad you asked!
People who use a charting method to pick stock piss me off. I liken them to the wacky therapists, but maybe that's unfair; after all, day traders have never killed anyone. But they will say things like "wait for this stock to reach $11; if it does, it's going right to $13"...Bullshit. This line of reasoning doesn't consider competitors, changes in costs, market demand, or anything else that is essential to making a good business decision. Market prices are not decided in a vaccuum; they're based on real world economics.
This awful thinking is exasperated, I think, because they put very little skin into the game with each stock (so they don't lose their shirts if one stock goes down) and the stock market generally increases in value over time. Every risk aversion equation I've seen in my investments classes would say that no one should be averse to investing if you have a long investment horizon. In other words, You can have the worst investment strategy and you still may be fine after a few years.
So there you have it. Rogue therapists and charters should be put on a tiny island together. They should not sit in the cube next to me.
Why do such crazy therapies exist? Because almost everyone suffering from something will get better with time? Just got divorced? Give it a year. Suffering from a psychotic episode? You probably won't be in a month. Roughly 50% of the effects of any therapy can be attributed to this variable, time. As a result, even the worst therapists will see an improvement in their patients.
Now you're probably asking what in the world this has to do with people who chart stocks. I'm glad you asked!
People who use a charting method to pick stock piss me off. I liken them to the wacky therapists, but maybe that's unfair; after all, day traders have never killed anyone. But they will say things like "wait for this stock to reach $11; if it does, it's going right to $13"...Bullshit. This line of reasoning doesn't consider competitors, changes in costs, market demand, or anything else that is essential to making a good business decision. Market prices are not decided in a vaccuum; they're based on real world economics.
This awful thinking is exasperated, I think, because they put very little skin into the game with each stock (so they don't lose their shirts if one stock goes down) and the stock market generally increases in value over time. Every risk aversion equation I've seen in my investments classes would say that no one should be averse to investing if you have a long investment horizon. In other words, You can have the worst investment strategy and you still may be fine after a few years.
So there you have it. Rogue therapists and charters should be put on a tiny island together. They should not sit in the cube next to me.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Literature Musings: Portnoy's Complaint & Indignation
Recently, I read Philip Roth's new book, Indignation, and was disappointed. It was a fun read, but not nearly as memorable as his other works. Or, maybe it was too much like his other books to be memorable on it's own. I decided to reread Portnoy's Complaint, written in the 60's, and realized that some of the passages were blatantly plagiarized. Well, maybe "plagiarized" is a bit strong; he took small (but meaningful) ideas of his old works and expanded them to mean much more in Indignation. But once you've heard the idea, it isn't so interesting when it's repackaged into a shiny new profitable novel, am I right?
Both books are about a smart Jewish guy who's life gets screwed over due to his over-protective Jewish parents. Yes, there are extremely strong Semitic overtones in Roth's novels, and a good amount of sexual deviance. And yes, putting those two themes together makes for some extremely entertaining reading. Take this passage from Portnoy's Complaint:
"The bus, the bus, what intervened on the bus to prevent me from coming all over that sleeping shikse's arm--I don't know. common sense, you think? Common decency? My right mind, as they say, coming to the fore? Well, where is this right mind on that afternoon I came home from school to find my mother out of the house and our refrigerator stocked with a big purplish piece of raw liver? I believe that i already confessed to the piece of liver that I bought in a butcher shop and banged behind a billboard on the way to a bar mitzvah lesson. Well, I wish to make a clean breast of it, Your Holiness. That--she--it--wasn't my first piece. My first piece I had in the privacy of my own home, rolled round my cock in the bathroom at three-thirty--and then had again on the end of a fork, at five-thirty, along with the other members of that poor innocent family of mine.
So, Now you know the worst thing I have ever done. I fucked my own family's dinner."
I won't give away the plot because figuring out where the story will lead is half the fun of reading this book. If you're thinking about reading Indignation, you're probably better off reading Portnoy's Complaint. All I'll say is that there are some Communist Chinese songs and mention of Bertrand Russell that are strong undertones to both books (much less subtle in Indignation).
I know what you're thinking: how can a book that mentions sex with a piece of liver have any philosophical undertones? Well, that's why Roth is my favorite author - see what you think of his work.
Both books are about a smart Jewish guy who's life gets screwed over due to his over-protective Jewish parents. Yes, there are extremely strong Semitic overtones in Roth's novels, and a good amount of sexual deviance. And yes, putting those two themes together makes for some extremely entertaining reading. Take this passage from Portnoy's Complaint:
"The bus, the bus, what intervened on the bus to prevent me from coming all over that sleeping shikse's arm--I don't know. common sense, you think? Common decency? My right mind, as they say, coming to the fore? Well, where is this right mind on that afternoon I came home from school to find my mother out of the house and our refrigerator stocked with a big purplish piece of raw liver? I believe that i already confessed to the piece of liver that I bought in a butcher shop and banged behind a billboard on the way to a bar mitzvah lesson. Well, I wish to make a clean breast of it, Your Holiness. That--she--it--wasn't my first piece. My first piece I had in the privacy of my own home, rolled round my cock in the bathroom at three-thirty--and then had again on the end of a fork, at five-thirty, along with the other members of that poor innocent family of mine.
So, Now you know the worst thing I have ever done. I fucked my own family's dinner."
I won't give away the plot because figuring out where the story will lead is half the fun of reading this book. If you're thinking about reading Indignation, you're probably better off reading Portnoy's Complaint. All I'll say is that there are some Communist Chinese songs and mention of Bertrand Russell that are strong undertones to both books (much less subtle in Indignation).
I know what you're thinking: how can a book that mentions sex with a piece of liver have any philosophical undertones? Well, that's why Roth is my favorite author - see what you think of his work.
Burrito Sticker Shock
I just had Chipotle for lunch: 1 chicken burrito and 1 soda. Total price? $8.01. What the hell. When did eating a burrito cost so much money? Because "supplier costs" went up? Are all Chipotles charging this much nowadays? I used to go like burritos for lunch because it was cheap and healthy. Now, it's just healthy, sort of.
Considering the economy, I wonder how the increased pricing is effecting sales. I would check their quarterly results but am too lazy to dive into the details of their 10Q. I also wonder if Qdoba has become more expensive as well, or if they are a "cheap" alternative. Quick answer could be the historical performance of their stock, CMG, which reached a peak of $151/share in Dec '07 and has dropped precipitously since, to around $50/share now.
As a side note, I was really impressed with my experience at the cash register. Although I paid with a $20 bill for my $8.01 lunch, the register computed $12 in change. Initially I thought "wow, marketing/sales and finance got together and agreed on something," but that's probably not true. A chicken burrito + soda has to be the second most popular order (right behind a chicken burrito with no drink) and giving out $0.99 to that many customers daily would require a cash register with a HUGE change drawer. And Chipotle can say that they gave something back to their customer. Win-win.
(yes, that was a long side note)
Considering the economy, I wonder how the increased pricing is effecting sales. I would check their quarterly results but am too lazy to dive into the details of their 10Q. I also wonder if Qdoba has become more expensive as well, or if they are a "cheap" alternative. Quick answer could be the historical performance of their stock, CMG, which reached a peak of $151/share in Dec '07 and has dropped precipitously since, to around $50/share now.
As a side note, I was really impressed with my experience at the cash register. Although I paid with a $20 bill for my $8.01 lunch, the register computed $12 in change. Initially I thought "wow, marketing/sales and finance got together and agreed on something," but that's probably not true. A chicken burrito + soda has to be the second most popular order (right behind a chicken burrito with no drink) and giving out $0.99 to that many customers daily would require a cash register with a HUGE change drawer. And Chipotle can say that they gave something back to their customer. Win-win.
(yes, that was a long side note)
Saturday, December 6, 2008
A New Look
Welcome to my site. The updated themes and the link to my wife's blog on the side are courtesy of - you guessed it - my wife.
Not sure I like the change, though. I was going with the FJM approach of I-have-no-idea-what-I'm-doing when it comes to site design.
Not sure I like the change, though. I was going with the FJM approach of I-have-no-idea-what-I'm-doing when it comes to site design.
In Search of Beer Variety
Three weeks ago, I read an article in The New Yorker about Dogfish Head Brewery (A Better Brew: the Rise of Extreme Beer; Nov 24th, 2008) and I became fascinated with the Midas Touch Golden Elixir. I love beer, but it's easy to go to the store, see the beer you always drink and take it home with you. But after a while, drinking Paulaner, Hoegaarden, Blue Moon, and Leinkugel's Honey Weiss gets old, boring, and too familiar.
The article mentions that Dogfish Head worked with an archeological chemist from UPenn to recreate one of the oldest brews in the world:
The historical Midas was a Phrygian ruler in what is now central Turkey. When he or one of his close relatives was buried, around 730 B.C., the tomb was filled with more than a hundred and fifty drinking vessels—parting toasts to the dead king. By the time they were excavated, in 1957, the liquid inside them had evaporated. But Patrick McGovern, forty years later, was able to analyze some residue from a bowl and identify its chemical content. By matching the compounds to those found in the foods and spices of ancient Turkey, McGovern gradually pieced together the liquid’s main ingredients: honey, barley, and grapes, and a yellow substance that was probably saffron. It was a beer, but like none we’ve ever tasted.
And Dogfish recreated this forgotten beer!
So now, my task is to find where this stuff is sold. Unfortunately, Madison, WI is the closest distributor to the Twin Cities. It is times like these that I miss living on the East Coast.
Once I find it in the store around here, I will follow-up with my own comments on this beer. It's more likely that I will have to wait until I travel back to Philadelphia to find it, but that may happen as early as Christmas. If you can find this beer, I'd love to hear your reaction!
The article mentions that Dogfish Head worked with an archeological chemist from UPenn to recreate one of the oldest brews in the world:
The historical Midas was a Phrygian ruler in what is now central Turkey. When he or one of his close relatives was buried, around 730 B.C., the tomb was filled with more than a hundred and fifty drinking vessels—parting toasts to the dead king. By the time they were excavated, in 1957, the liquid inside them had evaporated. But Patrick McGovern, forty years later, was able to analyze some residue from a bowl and identify its chemical content. By matching the compounds to those found in the foods and spices of ancient Turkey, McGovern gradually pieced together the liquid’s main ingredients: honey, barley, and grapes, and a yellow substance that was probably saffron. It was a beer, but like none we’ve ever tasted.
And Dogfish recreated this forgotten beer!
So now, my task is to find where this stuff is sold. Unfortunately, Madison, WI is the closest distributor to the Twin Cities. It is times like these that I miss living on the East Coast.
Once I find it in the store around here, I will follow-up with my own comments on this beer. It's more likely that I will have to wait until I travel back to Philadelphia to find it, but that may happen as early as Christmas. If you can find this beer, I'd love to hear your reaction!
Friday, December 5, 2008
Riesling
Did I mention that Riesling is my favorite wine, and that Chateau St. Michelle Erocia Riesling is damned good for under $15? A vivid description of the taste? Fuck that noise - all I can say is it's fragrant and it tastes sweet, but it definitely doesn't leave your mouth feeling like you just sucked on a jolly rancher.
Highly recommended, especially when it's approaching midnight and you have nothing else to do than drink a bottle of wine...
Highly recommended, especially when it's approaching midnight and you have nothing else to do than drink a bottle of wine...
Thanksgiving: next time, give thanks away from home!
As an airline employee, I have standby travel privileges. That means I can fly on any flight with open space. It also means that it is impossible to fly when demand is high, like Thanksgiving weekend...only there's a caveat to that.
Most of us think Thanksgiving is the busiest travel weekend of the year, and that's true domestically. Flying internationally is a completely different story because most people only fly home - domestically. It means that I have a better shot at traveling internationally on Thanksgiving than at any other time of the year. I haven't purchased a full-fare ticket in a long time, but logic would suggest that tickets for international travel are priced very low during Thanksgiving, if you're so inclined.
I have taken two trips during Thanksgiving week so far: once to Curacao (Netherland Antilles), and another to Taiwan. In both instances, I was happy with my decision to get away, and in both instances, I had interesting Thanksgiving meals.
In Curacao, I stayed with a friend who lives there, and we ate at his parents' place. From their backyard, we had a great view of the countryside. We had a server to keep our champagne glasses full, and there was a display of food that probably took 10 people all day to make. From yams, to real cranberry sauce (as opposed to that canned stuff), to a variety of vegetables, to a humungous turkey that was marinated the best way possible, and to the many pies and desserts, I'm not sure I was ever more thankful for my Thanksgiving than I was that day.
In Taiwan last week, I ate "Thanksgiving" dinner in central Taiwan in a resort area near the Sun Moon Lake. I was a bit disappointed not to have Turkey, but I wasn't expecting Turkey to be served in Asia. What I didn't expect was to be served "some sort of seafood", as my wife described it as the dish was served. It was VERY fried food that could have been tentacles of some sea creature, but very much took the shape of an insect. I didn't find out until after I finished that I ate fried bees, but it was a fairly good dish. I can't really describe it at all. It tasted like sweet fried food. There was no texture beyond the fried batter that made this dish unique. Thank goodness.
Most of us think Thanksgiving is the busiest travel weekend of the year, and that's true domestically. Flying internationally is a completely different story because most people only fly home - domestically. It means that I have a better shot at traveling internationally on Thanksgiving than at any other time of the year. I haven't purchased a full-fare ticket in a long time, but logic would suggest that tickets for international travel are priced very low during Thanksgiving, if you're so inclined.
I have taken two trips during Thanksgiving week so far: once to Curacao (Netherland Antilles), and another to Taiwan. In both instances, I was happy with my decision to get away, and in both instances, I had interesting Thanksgiving meals.
In Curacao, I stayed with a friend who lives there, and we ate at his parents' place. From their backyard, we had a great view of the countryside. We had a server to keep our champagne glasses full, and there was a display of food that probably took 10 people all day to make. From yams, to real cranberry sauce (as opposed to that canned stuff), to a variety of vegetables, to a humungous turkey that was marinated the best way possible, and to the many pies and desserts, I'm not sure I was ever more thankful for my Thanksgiving than I was that day.
In Taiwan last week, I ate "Thanksgiving" dinner in central Taiwan in a resort area near the Sun Moon Lake. I was a bit disappointed not to have Turkey, but I wasn't expecting Turkey to be served in Asia. What I didn't expect was to be served "some sort of seafood", as my wife described it as the dish was served. It was VERY fried food that could have been tentacles of some sea creature, but very much took the shape of an insect. I didn't find out until after I finished that I ate fried bees, but it was a fairly good dish. I can't really describe it at all. It tasted like sweet fried food. There was no texture beyond the fried batter that made this dish unique. Thank goodness.
Where I Get My Information
Maybe for my future interest, I wanted to post the periodicals I subscribe to, in order of preference. For those of you reading this blog, these periodicals are where I obtain about 60% of my information; the rest comes from blogs.
1. The Economist (weekly)
2. Wall Street Journal (daily)
3. The New Yorker (weekly)
4. Harvard Business Review (monthly)
5. Taiwan Review (monthly)
6. Whole Dog Journal (monthly)
7. The Atlantic (monthly)
8. American Scholar (quarterly)
9. Cook's Illustrated (monthly)
10. Wine Spectator (biweekly)
11. Forbes (weekly)
12. Businessweek (self explanatory)
Now, let's be honest; it is impossible to read this many periodicals cover-to-cover. I don't even try. My staples are #1-4. Wine Spectator is a picture book to me, so I spend literally 30 seconds reading each issue (it was free to subscribe to for a year, so again, not very important). Forbes and Businessweek seemed like great magazines before, and even during, business school, but the Economist is vastly superior; why waste my time with other business magazines?
I used to read only the business related articles in the Economist, but now I read everything. Having a better understanding of the political news around the world has rid me of the "Dumb American" syndrome. Hooray! The best articles usually are in the "Buttonwood" section, which are somewhat wonky economic discussions. Those articles actually make me miss microeconomics classes...wait, no that isn't true at all.
I subscribed to HBR while in grad school and thought it was stupid. It contains no concrete analyses and all the subject matter is abstract as hell. After two years of real world experience, however, the concept of making sense of abstract situations seems a heck of a lot more interesting. Managing isn't easy, and there hardly is one correct way to approach a situation. HBR tries to frame and provide solutions for those situations.
Are there any other great periodicals that are missing from my list?
1. The Economist (weekly)
2. Wall Street Journal (daily)
3. The New Yorker (weekly)
4. Harvard Business Review (monthly)
5. Taiwan Review (monthly)
6. Whole Dog Journal (monthly)
7. The Atlantic (monthly)
8. American Scholar (quarterly)
9. Cook's Illustrated (monthly)
10. Wine Spectator (biweekly)
11. Forbes (weekly)
12. Businessweek (self explanatory)
Now, let's be honest; it is impossible to read this many periodicals cover-to-cover. I don't even try. My staples are #1-4. Wine Spectator is a picture book to me, so I spend literally 30 seconds reading each issue (it was free to subscribe to for a year, so again, not very important). Forbes and Businessweek seemed like great magazines before, and even during, business school, but the Economist is vastly superior; why waste my time with other business magazines?
I used to read only the business related articles in the Economist, but now I read everything. Having a better understanding of the political news around the world has rid me of the "Dumb American" syndrome. Hooray! The best articles usually are in the "Buttonwood" section, which are somewhat wonky economic discussions. Those articles actually make me miss microeconomics classes...wait, no that isn't true at all.
I subscribed to HBR while in grad school and thought it was stupid. It contains no concrete analyses and all the subject matter is abstract as hell. After two years of real world experience, however, the concept of making sense of abstract situations seems a heck of a lot more interesting. Managing isn't easy, and there hardly is one correct way to approach a situation. HBR tries to frame and provide solutions for those situations.
Are there any other great periodicals that are missing from my list?
Don't Call it a Comeback
I figured it's time to give this blogging thing a second chance. I tried to focus specifically on travel, but even for a person who travels a lot, the topic is such a super-niche that blogging regularly is difficult. Instead, I am going ahead with a random subject approach. Maybe it will develop into something readable; most likely it won't. At the very least, I will give myself something to do during my downtime, usually as M-F, 8:30AM - 5:30PM...
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